The radical left in India has gone gaga in glee as Modi and his government seem to falter on their response to the Chinese aggression. The left seem to get their dopamine hits creating or sharing miscellaneous memes mocking Modi. And the opposition parties are using this as an opportunity to take jibes at Modi and his party, thinking this is the best time with no heed to their actions’ implications for national interests.
But there are more chances the radical left will have a severe dopamine crash and the associating derangement syndrome. And the opposition (not the smart ones like Mamata who supported Modi in this matter) like the congress and the communists will face a severe backlash from the public. And these parties may lose many elections to come.
As of now, it looks like the Chinese have come in with impunity and took over disputed territory perceived as Indian land by us. This is definitely the case in Pangong Tso lake where they have come up to Finger 4 from Finger 8 and camped, which both sides don’t do as the area from 4 to 8 is disputed.
The Govt and Army’s response too looks like they were caught by surprise and have suffered a loss of face and actual loss of life, sadly. The messaging and posturing from India looks weak and looking for de-escalation without war.
But here’s the catch:
Modi for one is highly unpredictable and his political acumen is unmatched by any politician in recent times. His consecutive successful wins since 2000 are testament to this. And his and party’s principal campaign weapon to grab power has been congress’s legacy, which goes all the way back to Nehru’s 1962 loss against China. The party is also hyper nationalist and derives a lot of its principles from Hindutva and radical ideology - including the philosophy that going to war, killing millions, suffering losses of own is justifiable if the enemy is unjust.
We should understand Modi’s BJP has parallels with Xi’s CCP in terms of many ideologies including “Akand Bharat”, “One nation, One religion, One culture”, “Forced national language”, “Jingoism”, “Nationalism as a tool to hold power,” "the military as an arm of the Govt, politics, and foreign policy”, and “the treatment of minorities”. Though have to state that the CCP as a dictatorship, far exceeds the BJP in all of the above.
So if diplomacy fails, (which by the way has been great under BJP, with both Sushma and Jaishankar doing a good job) why would the Govt not use war as an instrument of foreign policy to save face? They will! It is the left that brands Modi and BJP as fascist and dangerous. If so, it is wishful thinking for them that the current Govt. have backed off and won’t keep war as an option.
It must be clear to everyone by now that they have put war on the table literally. Both Modi and defense minister have said nobody can occupy an inch of our territory and India will go to war for any such intrusion. The left may believe these are empty words but we should not think these are people who would care about the consequences and chaos that can come. Saving face of their country, their ideology, their party, and themselves is a priority.
Which means, if the intrusion stays and diplomacy fails, they will go to war. And probably they are showing now as if they are backing off and weak until India’s time is right. When India has procured the military weapons, the time, and when it becomes difficult for China in icy Tibet starting October. One of things that again aids such an argument is the fact that India is militarily superior to China over the Himalayas and in the Indian ocean if the timing is right. The Indian Govt knows it and hence will take the risk if the Chinese don’t back off.
So just like how China’s CCP believes pulling India into a short conflict, grabbing some land, declaring victory, and rousing nationalism may be the best solution to all the problems at home, India’s BJP too would think going to war and making China back off will be the best victory it can achieve. When the opportunity comes in a platter at the worst time politically and economically, why not?
The current Indian Govt. can seal their future while Indians will shame the left forever - the radicals, the political parties, and the media.